The Dollar’s Dropping — But the Options Market Isn’t Buying It
Spot traders are selling the dollar ahead of a potentially dovish Fed. But options traders are shifting bullish, with 1-month risk reversals turning positive for the first time since April.
Why?
Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions are putting safe-haven demand back on the table — and the dollar still benefits from that.
Bottom line:
While everyone’s short USD on the Fed narrative, the options market is quietly hedging the opposite.
When the crowd leans too far one way, it’s usually time to watch for the turn.
